ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts a global cereal harvest of 2.98 billion tonnes for 2026, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record. While this figure is lower, it would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes less than the projection made in July. This annual reduction amounts to 61.1 million tonnes and marks the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
According to the FAO, world maize output is expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes after recent crop prospects were downgraded. The decline is largely due to ongoing summer heat and dryness that have negatively affected yields across key European Union producing regions, especially in France and Poland. Official estimates also prompted downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. However, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which will likely result in both countries achieving well-above-average maize production in 2026.
Forecasted world wheat production now stands at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the prior estimate. Expectations for higher yields in Canada and Morocco contributed approximately 1.5 million tonnes each to this revision. Projections for Russia and Ukraine also rose, whereas dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom caused expectations to decline. Despite these upward revisions, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and will remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize Declines Lead to Global Cereal Production Downgrade
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This represents a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from updated data for Myanmar and strong yields in Sri Lanka’s main crop. These positive factors offset reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% rise from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice use are expected to grow, wheat consumption is forecasted to decline from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed demand remains significant, especially for barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles of Cereals Remain Relatively Comfortable on a Global Scale
Forecasts indicate that world cereal inventories at the end of the 2027 seasons will total 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below previous estimates but 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is predicted to be 31.6%, slightly lower than the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. Wheat reserves are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while reduced maize and barley stocks have slightly lowered the overall stock outlook.
Global cereal trade for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, which is 1.7 million tonnes higher than earlier estimates. Despite this increase, the total remains below the record volume of 2025/26. The rise is mainly driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, although overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.