GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This marks a notable rise from the 1.9 percent projection made in March. The WTO attributed this upward revision to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, along with supply chain restructuring and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions impacting energy, transportation, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first six months of 2026. The organization now expects merchandise trade growth to reach 4.1 percent in 2027.
During the initial half of 2026, the surge in demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in boosting merchandise trade. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these products soared by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the WTO stated that worldwide investment in AI infrastructure should increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. The strong demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade levels, even as other sectors faced setbacks from conflicts and transportation bottlenecks.
Adjustments in global supply chains also responded to pressures across significant commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent. Global LNG exports experienced a marginal decrease of only 1 percent. Additionally, worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-related Goods Drive Strength in Global Merchandise Trade
The optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for international services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. The disruptions in the Middle East have intensified pressures on transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals declined by 0.8 percent. Overall, arrivals increased by only 0.4 percent during the first half of the year. Growth in travel spending slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Other service sectors, however, showed resilience despite the challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter. The WTO estimated that growth in the second quarter reached 12 percent. Exports of financial services also grew by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The organization projects that commercial services trade volume will expand by 6.4 percent in 2027. It further anticipates global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade Growth Varies Significantly Across Regions
Regional projections for merchandise trade reveal wide disparities within the global economy. The WTO forecasts Asia will lead export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North America’s exports are expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is forecast to see a 3.4 percent increase. Conversely, Europe is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to drop 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also shows sharp regional differences in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is projected to see a 9.5 percent rise in merchandise imports, with Africa following at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to increase by 1.4 percent, while Europe’s imports are expected to grow by 0.5 percent. The Middle East, however, faces a significant decrease, with merchandise imports falling by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that these figures demonstrate trade resilience, while also highlighting the varying levels of exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.