MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to boost its yearly vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035, according to its revamped automotive sector strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this goal on Aug. 31 during a meeting dedicated to the sector’s development. The figure encompasses vehicles intended for both the domestic market and export. Additionally, the plan aims for 80% of the new-vehicle market to be composed of locally produced vehicles by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s annual vehicle production capacity was roughly 3.3 million units. Actual production that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production capacity reached 35%, and buses accounted for 43% of their capacity utilization.
The projected scenario sets the 2035 production targets at 2.5 million passenger cars and about 170,000 light commercial vehicles. It also envisions producing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car manufacturing will be distributed across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles are expected to use one or two. The same plan estimates the total new-vehicle market at around 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports making up as much as 20% of that market.
Production targets encompass all vehicle categories
The strategy incorporates a baseline scenario with reduced production and market size. Under this scenario, annual vehicle output would reach about 1.69 million units by 2035. It projects the new-vehicle market at roughly 2.2 million units in that year. For 2030, the target scenario anticipates a new-vehicle market of approximately 2.4 million units. Meanwhile, the baseline scenario estimates the 2030 market at about 2 million vehicles across all segments.
A significant component of the updated framework involves powertrain and technological goals. Internal-combustion engine vehicles are expected to represent between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, depending on the vehicle segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars are projected to constitute at least 25% of Russia’s domestic new passenger-car market by that year. Furthermore, the plan targets the production of roughly 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035. The document also emphasizes driver-assistance systems and digital vehicle technologies.
Capacity expansion and localization efforts remain key performance indicators
Russia’s current manufacturing capacity far exceeds its recent annual production. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units, while actual output was near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity stood at about 300,000 units, with production close to 80,000. Truck capacity was roughly 130,000 units, and bus capacity was approximately 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced about 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes broader adoption of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets more ambitious localization and technological independence targets for domestically produced vehicles. The framework covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies. Its envisioned scenario combines the 2.8 million annual production target with the goal of 80% domestic market share. An action plan for implementation is mandated by the order that approved this revised strategy.