MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established an objective of reaching 662 million tonnes of annual coal output by the year 2050, according to a newly approved industry development plan. This target forms part of the scenario outlined in Russia’s updated coal expansion strategy. In 2024, production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government sanctioned the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-range benchmarks for production, exports, and industry growth.
The plan describes four potential trajectories for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and increase to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. It then is expected to reach 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios forecast lower 2050 output levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes under the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia also set specific export goals. The main scenario estimates coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. This figure is expected to rise to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while expanding coal resources. It also envisions a bigger role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. In 2024, these regions contributed 48.3% of national coal output. The plan projects that share to increase to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
Additional targets are set for coal processing and mining techniques. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) accounted for 58.9%. The plan aims to raise this share to a range of 74% to 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining represented 78.4% of total production in 2024. Under the long-term outlook, this share is expected to grow to between 82% and 85%. The document also addresses goals related to productivity, technological advancements, safety protocols, and environmental measures.
Coal Industry Development Plan Extends to 2050
Russia will implement this plan in three phases. The first phase spans until 2030 and includes measures to develop production and support the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will focus on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will cover the full implementation of the strategy. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution alongside other federal, regional, and involved organizations. It is required to submit annual progress reports to the Economic Development Ministry as per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal sector plan, which was approved through 2035 in 2020. Novak highlighted that the plan envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also mentioned that its overall multiplier effect could reach nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario within the plan rather than an unconditional forecast.