POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to recent research, climate change has the potential to nearly triple the yearly land area affected by wildfires in Europe by 2100. The study forecasts a 192% rise in annual burned regions under a high-emissions trajectory linked to approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This research follows significant wildfire events in 2026 that impacted parts of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Persistent hot, dry, and windy conditions are identified as the key climate factors driving these increases.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers analyzed both a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The former correlates with roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the latter reaches about 3.6°C. To focus on climate impacts, socioeconomic factors were held constant in separate experiments to evaluate their influence on wildfire activity.
One model indicated approximately a 39% increase in the land burned annually by the end of the century under the lower-emissions scenario. Another model suggested a possible decrease in burned areas due to differences in how historical human influences were reflected. Conversely, under the high-emissions scenario, the models predicted a significantly larger growth in burned land. The most substantial increases are expected around the Mediterranean and throughout Western and Central Europe, regions that have historically seen relatively little fire activity.
Models demonstrate that emissions levels significantly influence burned areas
The research determined that future wildfire activity in Europe is strongly affected by fire weather conditions and firefighting capacity. Regional factors such as population density, vegetation changes, and land use also play crucial roles. Maik Billing, the lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, led the study. The analysis distinguishes between fire weather driven by climate change and human factors that can modify fire spread.
Enhancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce the extent of burned areas by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential for reduction is greater in the lower-emissions scenario and smaller in the face of more intense warming. Despite ongoing advances in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s vulnerable regions could still see increased fire activity under severe climate change. Thomas Hickler, a co-author from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, contributed to this finding.
Effective fire management strategies can limit wildfire expansion
This research comes amid an especially intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, driven by dry conditions and extreme heat waves. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but fires also spread to regions farther north. The study’s projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity throughout parts of Western and Central Europe. These trends are attributed to changing fire weather patterns as rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells become more common.
It is important to note that the projected 192% increase is not an unavoidable outcome. This figure represents a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions made in the study. Researchers observed a much smaller increase under lower-emissions conditions and noted that significant reductions are achievable through stronger fire management measures. However, they also found that such efforts alone cannot fully counteract the rise in fire activity associated with higher global temperatures. Ultimately, emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and firefighting capacity are identified as the primary determinants of Europe’s future wildfire landscape.